Although word from the Greenwich Prime Meridian insists that it’s required to hang around a a little longer via a “leap second” (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-eu-britain-time-to-change,0,6973696.story), 2008 is almost gone.

And good riddance. Although there’s been no lack of stuff to write about this year, from Eliot Spitzer to AIG, 2008 for the most part has been the kind of year most of us would like to forget.

And early signals seem to indicate that 2009 could be shaping up to be just as “interesting,” in the Chinese curse sense. Last week while decompressing with my kids in San Antonio, I sneaked a peek at the Crackberry to learn that the FTC was sniffing around nine insurers about their use of credit-based insurance scores for home insurance, citing concern about bias against minorities.

In the January issue of AA&B, NAMIC’s Paul Tetrault presciently discusses just that subject, and the need to educate legislators on the beneficial side of credit scoring. I’ve written about credit scoring on this blog site, and personally have mixed feelings about its use.

But whether or not you’re a fan of credit scoring, the FTC’s action seems to suggest a taste of things to come in 2009. In the wake of the economic meltdown, all regulatory eyes are on the financial services sector, and plenty of that limelight will be spilling on insurance.

Part of that focus is likely to come in an increase in M&A activity — something that’s already well under way, with Munich Re snapping up Hartford Steam Boiler from AIG and Zurich publicly announcing its intention to increase its acquisitions in 2009. No surprise, then, that Watson Wyatt just announced that it expects the insurance industry to see more M&A activity in 2009 (http://www.watsonwyatt.com/news/press.asp?ID=20287).  And although I predicted earlier this year that more foreign investors would be looking to buy U.S.-based insurance entities, the current global recession may make that impending fire sale a little less intense.

So what’s in store for 2009? I’ll leave the predictions to the wiser heads in the industry, but I do have a wish list:

1.  Stock market stability. Come on, guys, put on your big boy panties and start doing some business, along with all those bailed-out banks that aren’t makeing any loans. A little of the uncertainty has eased due to the financial sector rescue and Big 3 auto handouts, so let’s all stop standing on chairs and screaming at imaginary mice.

2. Bailout accountability. When you or I get a personal or business loan from a bank, they give us something called a “payment schedule” to ultimately get their investment back. But when the Treasury throws billions at banks in a bailout, the money seems to disappear into a black hole. Check out this interesting site to try and follow the money: http://www.propublica.org/feature/bailout-bucks-to-banks-1028. Meanwhile, we should be holding each TARP recipient’s feet to the fire for accountability. And the banks getting this bailout gravy should be doing what banks do — you know, lending money to creditworthy citizens.

3. Peace on earth, good will toward all. Corny, yeah, but we need nothing less to get through what 2009 and beyond will have to offer. That means Dems working with Repubs, conservatives with liberals, federal regulation supporters with state regulation supporters (gasp!).

Oh, and be nice to your friendly neighborhood editor, too — 2008 wasn’t really nice to the publishing industry, either!

God knows our economy and the property-casualty industry are engulfed by what seems like an endless bank of dark clouds. But the Big I’s new “Agency Universe Study” suggests that there may be a silver lining in there somewhere (or as the optimistic kid said on finding a pile of horse manure under the Christmas tree, “There must be a pony somewhere!”).

First off, the number of independent agencies has stabilized since the 2006 study. Although down from an estimated 44,000 agencies in 1996, this year’s 37,500 is roughly the same as 2006, suggesting that many of the dire predictions about the demise of the small to midsized independent agent may be premature — and that the M&A boom of recent years is bottoming out.

But the real surprise is not the slowdown in M&A activity, but the increase of small (revenues of $150,00 and under),  start-up agencies — 11 percent of survey respondents were founded in 2004 or later (including 4 percent that launched in 2007 and 2008).

Another interesting point that quantifies what I’ve been hearing from agents is that a lot of this growth is around personal lines, especially in the South Atlantic and West South Central coastal areas where direct writers are reluctant to tread (we’ll tackle the personal lines issue in the February AA&B). These new agencies are deriving 48 percent of their insurance revenue from personal lines commissions.

The survey’s other major findings include:

• Declining revenues due to the soft market and shifting premiums, more common among medium-small and medium agencies (with $150,000 to $1.2 million in revenues), with 23 percent reporting average decreases of 10 percent
• More efficient operation through use of technology with fewer employees, with agencies employing 9 full-time employees in 2008 versus 11.2 in 2006
• Improved satisfaction with carriers, with more than one-third finding business planning with their No. 1 carrier very valuable
• Reduced usage of customer service centers, with only 24 percent of agencies using them
• More carrier representation for personal lines, with an average of 6.2 carriers
• Increased concern about controlling expenses and reinvesting

It seems to me that the really good news in these varied findings is that agents are finding creative ways to get around the problems of the economy and the soft market by providing consumers with a viable alternative to the ducks and the cavemen through more efficient service, increased personalization, and a choice of carriers. And that indeed means a pony is in the wings.

To hear a more in-depth perspective of the Agency Universe Study findings, listen to our interview with  Madelyn Flannagan, Big I’s vice president, education and research, at the podcast portion of the AA&B Web site at http://www.agentandbroker.com/Media/PodcastItems/FlannaganFinal.mp3.

…than a frontal lobotomy. (attributed to Tom Waits)

 And evidently, in these hard times, so would a lot of other people.

If you’re sick of watching your 401(k) and blue-chip stocks tank, here’s a hot investment tip: booze.

From today’s Huffington Post (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/): Check out the latest performance figures from the diversified producer of brands including Jack Daniel’s and Finlandia: